RIM: Bernstein sees slowing earnings overseas-Barron's (blog)

AnalystSanford Bernstein Pierre ferragu today reiterated an Underperform rating on shares of Research in Motion (RIMM), writing"BlackBerry a brand", and that the benefits of growth in sales abroad starts to go away.

RIM Ferragu expects to report "a good quarter" when it becomes 4th fiscal quarter results this Thursday, after the market close. The forecast for the first fiscal quarter will probably also be positive, thinks. Ferragu is modeling 5.7 billion turnover, at the high end of the forecast of RIM for 5,5 billion at 5.7 billion.

However, for the entire year, he sees $ 23.4 billion, below the consensus of $ 23.8 billion. Based on surveys conducted by Bernstein and a company called Crowd sciencelast year, Ferragu believes only 43% of BlackBerry owners would stick with a BlackBerry than moving to another platform of phone, compared to 92% of iPhone owners of Apple (AAPL) and 87% of the Googleowners (GOOG) "Android"-based phones.

In addition, growth overseas (i.e., outside North America) 98% of RIM may slow as parts of the story reveal: he sees "buyers first" in Europe, which have been moving to smartphones, becoming less of a force as "buyer's market for the first time is mechanically set to smartphone users ridursie as they become more experienced." RIM "momentum" in Europe is already under HTC and of Samsung (SSNLF), he believes.

HTC and other manufacturers can predict "ramp up" cheap Android phones that will challenge RIM in this segment of the market abroad, which he believes. "We expect EPS to peak this year at $ 6.31 and in the context of declining earnings, beyond fiscal year 2012," concludes Ferragu.

RIM shares are up $ 1.36, or 2 percent, to $ 62.27.

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